THE EVIDENCE TRAIL — EVERY SIGNAL BEHIND THE SCORE
TIERSIGNAL TYPEWHAT HAPPENEDSOURCECHANGEWEIGHT
●VERIFIED+41%
Three enterprise RFPs this quarter required outcome-based pricing as a shortlisting condition.Procurement · Ferrovia Systems Q2 filing · 2026-09-11
●VERIFIEDProcurementThree enterprise RFPs this quarter required outcome-based pricing as a shortlisting condition.Ferrovia Systems Q2 filing · 2026-09-11+41%
◦SIGNAL+27%
Job postings for 'agent orchestration' roles are up sharply across mid-market SaaS buyers.Hiring · Northline Labour Index · 2026-09-06
◦SIGNALHiringJob postings for 'agent orchestration' roles are up sharply across mid-market SaaS buyers.Northline Labour Index · 2026-09-06+27%
◦SIGNAL+19%
Seed-to-Series-A capital into workflow-layer startups accelerated for a second straight quarter.Capital · Copperline Ventures deal tracker · 2026-08-30
◦SIGNALCapitalSeed-to-Series-A capital into workflow-layer startups accelerated for a second straight quarter.Copperline Ventures deal tracker · 2026-08-30+19%
◦SIGNAL+24%
Filings volume was noted above the prior comparable period.Filings · Cascade Ledger filings index · 2026-09-10
◦SIGNALFilingsFilings volume was noted above the prior comparable period.Cascade Ledger filings index · 2026-09-10+24%
◇ESTIMATE+9%
Filings is estimated to have shifted based on sampled panel data.Filings · Ashgrove Partners survey · 2026-09-03Sampled panel data, method consistent with the category's other estimates.
◇ESTIMATEFilingsFilings is estimated to have shifted based on sampled panel data.Ashgrove Partners survey · 2026-09-03+9%
Sampled panel data, method consistent with the category's other estimates.
02
Why it is happening
RANKED CATALYSTS · WEIGHTED CONTRIBUTION
01
Agent tooling
Agent frameworks crossed production reliability this year, so IT can approve autonomous execution instead of copilot-only deployments.
.41
02
Procurement budgets
Budget owners are re-classifying spend from software licensing to services, pulling funds out of legacy RPA contracts as they renew.
.33
03
Compliance frameworks
EU and US audit-trail requirements for autonomous agents stabilised in Q2, removing the main legal blocker for regulated buyers.
.26
NAMED INVALIDATION RISKS
What would make this call wrong. If any of these resolves true, the forecast is withdrawn.
01A dominant incumbent bundles agent workflows into its existing seat-based suite at no extra cost.
02Enterprise procurement cycles lengthen materially, pushing signed contracts past the modelled window.
03Audit-trail requirements tighten again after a high-profile agent failure.