NVILE forecast ·
Applied Materials (AMAT) Stock Forecast: Next 30 Days
Over the next 30 days, AMAT's calibrated 80% price range is $294.95 to $481.61, centered at $376.90. The primary catalyst is earnings on November 12, 2026, which historically drives an average single-session move of 5.3%. Options markets imply a wider swing of ~12.3%, with a 21% probability of exceeding a 10% move on results day. Over the full 30-day window, odds of a greater than 10% rise or drop are 32% and 28% respectively, indicating elevated volatility rather than directional certainty.
Price now
$374.53
Nov 2, 2026
In 30 days
$376.90
NVILE forecast
Expected move
+0.6%
Range
$294.95–$481.61
What to do
- Manage exposure sizing to account for a wide $295–$482 range rather than single-point targets.Calibrated models demonstrate wide dispersion due to high historical volatility and binary earnings event risk.
- Avoid initiating unhedged directional stakes immediately prior to the November 12, 2026 earnings release.Options markets price a 12.3% event swing, substantially wider than AMAT's 5.3% typical reaction.
Why
- AMAT calibrated 80% price distribution over 30 days spans $294.95 to $481.61, reflecting wide dispersion around the $376.90 median.
- Q4 earnings on November 12, 2026 serve as the critical catalyst; options imply a 12.3% move against a typical 5.3% historical move.
- Wall Street maintains an overwhelmingly bullish stance with 35 buy/strong buy ratings and a mean target of $626.86 (+67.4%).[4]
- Impending earnings on November 12 dominates implied volatility, with a 20.7% probability of a single-day move over 10%.
- Net insider sales totaled $4.45M across 3 transactions over the past 90 days with zero open-market purchases.[2]
What could go wrong
- Earnings day volatility is priced high at 12.3%, carrying substantial gap risk below the 80% band support of $294.95.
- Insider selling by senior leadership ($4.45M across CFO, CAO, Director) at higher levels indicates caution near resistance.[2]
How it connects
- Applied Materials, Inc.filed Form 8-K and 10-K disclosures withSecurities and Exchange Commission[5],[3]
- Financial Industry Regulatory Authoritytracks short-sale trade share of reported volume forApplied Materials, Inc.[1]
- Brice Hillsold 7,500 shares at $479.25 as CFO ofApplied Materials, Inc.[2]
- Judy Brunersold 1,000 shares at $465.00 as Director ofApplied Materials, Inc.[2]
- Adam Sanderssold 725 shares at $544.56 as Controller and CAO ofApplied Materials, Inc.[2]
- Applied Materials, Inc.participating subsidiary under Profit Sharing SchemeApplied Materials Ireland Limited[3]
- Yahoo Finance Consensusaggregates 41 analyst ratings and consensus price targets forApplied Materials, Inc.[4]
NVILE's track record on this page
| Made | Forecast | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | $376.90 | Due Dec 3, 2026 | Pending |
Every published call is scored when it comes due. See all results →
Sources
- 1.AMAT daily short-sale volume (FINRA) · finra.org
- 2.APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE insider transactions (SEC Form 4) · sec.gov
- 3.APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE 10-K (2025-12-12) · sec.gov
- 4.AMAT Wall Street consensus: estimates, revisions, ratings, targets · finance.yahoo.com
- 5.APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE 8-K (2026-05-14) · sec.gov
Questions
What is the Applied Materials forecast for the next 30 days?
NVILE's models put Applied Materials at about $376.90 in 30 days, +0.6% from $374.53. Over the next 30 days, AMAT's calibrated 80% price range is $294.95 to $481.61, centered at $376.90. The primary catalyst is earnings on November 12, 2026, which historically drives an average single-session move of 5.3%. Options markets imply a wider swing of ~12.3%, with a 21% probability of exceeding a 10% move on results day. Over the full 30-day window, odds of a greater than 10% rise or drop are 32% and 28% respectively, indicating elevated volatility rather than directional certainty.
What price range does NVILE expect for Applied Materials?
The forecast range is $294.95 to $481.61 over 30 days. Prices outside this range are possible; the range describes the model's scenarios, not a guarantee.
What could change the Applied Materials outlook?
Earnings day volatility is priced high at 12.3%, carrying substantial gap risk below the 80% band support of $294.95. Insider selling by senior leadership ($4.45M across CFO, CAO, Director) at higher levels indicates caution near resistance.
What should investors watch or do about Applied Materials?
Manage exposure sizing to account for a wide $295–$482 range rather than single-point targets. Avoid initiating unhedged directional stakes immediately prior to the November 12, 2026 earnings release.
How accurate are NVILE forecasts?
Every forecast NVILE publishes is scored against the real price when it comes due, and the results are listed on NVILE's public accuracy ledger.
This page is generated by NVILE's research models from public sources and market data. It is not financial advice, and forecasts can be wrong.