Earnings Risk Radar
Know which results could move the price, before they do.
For every upcoming result we show how big the move is likely to be, what options traders are pricing, and the odds of a swing of more than 10%. Nobody can call the direction of a result in advance; the size of the risk can be measured.
63%
of results-day moves over 10% came from the fifth of events NVILE rated riskiest
37%
of those top-rated events moved over 10%, against 12% on average
1 in 380
of the lowest-rated 40% of events moved that much
1,918
past results days tested out of sample, 54 stocks, 2016-2026
Coming up
Price reacts Tue, Nov 3
| Company | Results | Risk | NVILE expected move | Options imply | Odds of a >10% move | Typical past move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PalantirPLTR | Mon, Nov 2, after close | Very high | ±15.3% | ±12.3% | 70% | 14.6% |
| ShopifySHOP | Tue, Nov 3, before open | Very high | ±13.7% | ±14.7% | 70% | 16.0% |
| AppleAAPL | Mon, Nov 2, after close | Low | ±2.8% | ±4.5% | 1% | 1.0% |
| PfizerPFE | Tue, Nov 3, before open | Low | ±2.6% | ±4.2% | <1% | 1.6% |
Price reacts Wed, Nov 4
| Company | Results | Risk | NVILE expected move | Options imply | Odds of a >10% move | Typical past move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Micro ComputerSMCI | Tue, Nov 3, after close | Very high | ±14.8% | ±12.2% | 67% | 14.0% |
| DatadogDDOG | Wed, Nov 4, before open | Very high | ±12.0% | ±15.6% | 51% | 10.4% |
| AMDAMD | Tue, Nov 3, after close | Very high | ±8.5% | ±9.1% | 37% | 7.0% |
| UberUBER | Wed, Nov 4, before open | High | ±5.7% | ±7.4% | 15% | 5.4% |
| Booking HoldingsBKNG | Tue, Nov 3, after close | High | ±4.4% | ±7.1% | 11% | 3.4% |
| AmgenAMGN | Tue, Nov 3, after close | Moderate | ±5.4% | ±4.3% | 10% | 5.2% |
| Novo NordiskNVO | Wed, Nov 4, before open | Moderate | ±4.2% | ±6.2% | 6% | 3.8% |
| McDonald'sMCD | Wed, Nov 4, before open | Low | ±2.3% | ±3.5% | <1% | 2.0% |
Price reacts Thu, Nov 5
| Company | Results | Risk | NVILE expected move | Options imply | Odds of a >10% move | Typical past move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SnapSNAP | Wed, Nov 4, after close | Very high | ±16.9% | ±13.5% | 72% | 14.1% |
| Arm HoldingsARM | Wed, Nov 4, after close | Very high | ±10.4% | ±11.4% | 38% | 6.0% |
| QualcommQCOM | Wed, Nov 4, after close | Very high | ±7.0% | ±9.1% | 27% | 6.9% |
| Bharti AirtelBHARTIARTL.NS | Thu, Nov 5, before open | Low | ±1.8% | — | <1% | 1.5% |
Price reacts Fri, Nov 6
| Company | Results | Risk | NVILE expected move | Options imply | Odds of a >10% move | Typical past move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CloudflareNET | Thu, Nov 5, after close | Very high | ±11.5% | ±14.7% | 52% | 9.8% |
| ModernaMRNA | Fri, Nov 6, before open | Very high | ±8.6% | ±7.5% | 35% | 5.5% |
| AirbnbABNB | Thu, Nov 5, after close | Very high | ±7.0% | ±7.0% | 32% | 5.8% |
Price reacts Fri, Nov 13
| Company | Results | Risk | NVILE expected move | Options imply | Odds of a >10% move | Typical past move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CiscoCSCO | Thu, Nov 12, after close | Very high | ±6.0% | ±9.6% | 25% | 4.6% |
| Applied MaterialsAMAT | Thu, Nov 12, after close | High | ±6.1% | ±12.3% | 21% | 5.3% |
Price reacts Tue, Nov 17
| Company | Results | Risk | NVILE expected move | Options imply | Odds of a >10% move | Typical past move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DisneyDIS | Tue, Nov 17, before open | High | ±6.7% | ±6.1% | 21% | 7.0% |
| Home DepotHD | Tue, Nov 17, before open | Low | ±2.4% | ±5.8% | <1% | 1.3% |
Price reacts Wed, Nov 18
| Company | Results | Risk | NVILE expected move | Options imply | Odds of a >10% move | Typical past move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TargetTGT | Wed, Nov 18, before open | Very high | ±8.6% | ±8.2% | 33% | 6.5% |
| NvidiaNVDA | Tue, Nov 17, after close | High | ±5.9% | ±5.9% | 20% | 4.4% |
| Lowe'sLOW | Wed, Nov 18, before open | Low | ±2.7% | ±6.5% | <1% | 1.9% |
Price reacts Thu, Nov 19
| Company | Results | Risk | NVILE expected move | Options imply | Odds of a >10% move | Typical past move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WalmartWMT | Thu, Nov 19, before open | Moderate | ±5.4% | ±6.3% | 7% | 6.3% |
Price reacts Fri, Nov 20
| Company | Results | Risk | NVILE expected move | Options imply | Odds of a >10% move | Typical past move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IntuitINTU | Thu, Nov 19, after close | High | ±7.0% | ±10.4% | 22% | 5.5% |
| Palo Alto NetworksPANW | Thu, Nov 19, after close | High | ±8.0% | ±15.5% | 20% | 6.4% |
Price reacts Tue, Nov 24
| Company | Results | Risk | NVILE expected move | Options imply | Odds of a >10% move | Typical past move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZoomZM | Mon, Nov 23, after close | Very high | ±7.5% | ±14.2% | 36% | 8.2% |
| AlibabaBABA | Tue, Nov 24, before open | High | ±6.2% | ±5.5% | 21% | 6.8% |
Price reacts Wed, Nov 25
| Company | Results | Risk | NVILE expected move | Options imply | Odds of a >10% move | Typical past move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DellDELL | Tue, Nov 24, after close | Very high | ±13.1% | ±14.9% | 55% | 11.2% |
How the calls turned out
3 of the 3 results-day moves over 10% since the radar went live were rated high or very high risk beforehand.
| Company | Reacted | Rated | Expected move | Actual move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Bank of IndiaSBIN.NS | Tue, Nov 3 | Low | ±2.7% | +0.9% |
| Reliance IndustriesRELIANCE.NS | Mon, Nov 2 | Low | ±2.0% | +7.6% |
| ITCITC.NS | Mon, Nov 2 | Low | ±1.5% | -0.1% |
| PinterestPINS | Fri, Oct 30 | Very high | ±14.2% | -2.8% |
| RobloxRBLX | Fri, Oct 30 | Very high | ±14.5% | -18.1% |
| IntelINTC | Fri, Oct 30 | Very high | ±11.7% | -28.6% |
| CoinbaseCOIN | Fri, Oct 30 | Very high | ±8.9% | -10.6% |
| RivianRIVN | Fri, Oct 30 | Very high | ±10.8% | +6.2% |
| Strategy (MicroStrategy)MSTR | Fri, Oct 30 | Very high | ±8.4% | -7.8% |
| AmazonAMZN | Fri, Oct 30 | High | ±6.4% | -1.4% |
| StarbucksSBUX | Fri, Oct 30 | High | ±5.1% | -1.7% |
| ChevronCVX | Fri, Oct 30 | Low | ±2.9% | +1.8% |
| AbbVieABBV | Fri, Oct 30 | Low | ±3.6% | +1.4% |
| ExxonMobilXOM | Fri, Oct 30 | Low | ±1.7% | +2.2% |
Expected move = the average size of the results-day move under NVILE's model, built from each stock's own recent results days. Options imply = the at-the-money straddle on the first expiry after the results, as a share of the price. Risk bands follow the odds of a move over 10%: very high 25%+, high 10–25%, moderate 2–10%. Dates come from Yahoo Finance and can change. Not financial advice.