NVILE forecast ·
Costco (COST) Stock Forecast: Next 30 Days
Over the next 30 days, Costco (COST) has an 80% calibrated price range between $974.37 and $1,125.31, centered around the current $1,040.55 level. Statistical odds of extreme volatility are modest, with a 3% probability of falling more than 10% and a 6% probability of rising more than 10%. Wall Street consensus reflects an average 12-month target of $1,067.59, but price distribution modeling confirms no tested directional drift over 30 days.
Price now
$1,041
Nov 2, 2026
In 30 days
$1,047
NVILE forecast
Expected move
+0.6%
Range
$974.37–$1,125
What to do
- Frame exposure against the calibrated 30-day band of $974.37 to $1,125.31.Event volatility distribution identifies symmetric bounds without historical directional edge over 30 days.
- Monitor short-sale trade ratios for persistent shifts above 50%.[2]Short volume rising above the 20-session average of 45.8% highlights potential hedging or sentiment shifts.
Why
- Costco's calibrated 30-day 80% range spans $974.37 to $1,125.31, with a 3% probability of a 10%+ decline and 6% probability of a 10%+ rally.
- Wall Street analyst consensus reflects an average 12-month target of $1,067.59, with 11 upward EPS revisions and zero cuts over the last 30 days.[4]
- Short-sale volume accounted for 52.8% of daily reported volume on 2026-11-02, rising above its 20-session average of 45.8%.[2]
- Earnings momentum remains positive following a 5.3% earnings surprise in the prior reported quarter.[4]
- Broad consumer staples momentum is supportive, with the sector benchmark XLP gaining 3.26% across recent sessions.
What could go wrong
How it connects
- Costco Wholesale Corpoperates 647 warehouses inUnited States[3]
- Costco Wholesale Corpoperates 115 warehouses inCanada[3]
- Costco Wholesale Corpderived 26% of 2026 U.S. net sales fromCalifornia[3]
- Financial Industry Regulatory Authoritymonitors short-sale trade reports forCostco Wholesale Corp[2]
- Securities and Exchange Commissionreceives regulatory filings fromCostco Wholesale Corp[1],[3]
NVILE's track record on this page
| Made | Forecast | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | $1,047 | Due Dec 3, 2026 | Pending |
| Oct 31, 2026 | $1,019 | Due Nov 30, 2026 | Pending |
| Oct 30, 2026 | $997.24 | Due Nov 29, 2026 | Pending |
Every published call is scored when it comes due. See all results →
Sources
Questions
What is the Costco forecast for the next 30 days?
NVILE's models put Costco at about $1,047 in 30 days, +0.6% from $1,041. Over the next 30 days, Costco (COST) has an 80% calibrated price range between $974.37 and $1,125.31, centered around the current $1,040.55 level. Statistical odds of extreme volatility are modest, with a 3% probability of falling more than 10% and a 6% probability of rising more than 10%. Wall Street consensus reflects an average 12-month target of $1,067.59, but price distribution modeling confirms no tested directional drift over 30 days.
What price range does NVILE expect for Costco?
The forecast range is $974.37 to $1,125 over 30 days. Prices outside this range are possible; the range describes the model's scenarios, not a guarantee.
What could change the Costco outlook?
Rising FINRA Reg SHO short-sale volume share reaching 52.8% indicates growing market-maker hedging or institutional positioning against extended valuations. High concentration risk exists as California represents 26% of U.S. net sales, and U.S. and Canada account for 83% of operating income.
What should investors watch or do about Costco?
Frame exposure against the calibrated 30-day band of $974.37 to $1,125.31. Monitor short-sale trade ratios for persistent shifts above 50%.
How accurate are NVILE forecasts?
Every forecast NVILE publishes is scored against the real price when it comes due, and the results are listed on NVILE's public accuracy ledger.
This page is generated by NVILE's research models from public sources and market data. It is not financial advice, and forecasts can be wrong.