NVILE forecast ·
Disney (DIS) Stock Forecast: Next 30 Days
Over the next 30 days, DIS is expected to trade within an 80% calibrated range of $100.05 to $129.49, against its latest price of $113.11. The primary catalyst is Q4 earnings on 2026-11-17, which historically triggers a typical one-day move of 7.0%, while options imply a 6.3% swing. Calibrated models indicate a 20% probability of a >10% gain, a 14% chance of a >10% decline, and a 21% risk of a single-day >10% earnings move. Price history lacks 30-day directional predictive power.
Price now
$113.11
Nov 2, 2026
In 30 days
$113.82
NVILE forecast
Expected move
+0.6%
Range
$100.05–$129.49
What to do
- Manage unhedged directional exposure ahead of the 2026-11-17 earnings release.[4]Options price an immediate 6.3% swing, with a 21% risk of a single-day >10% jump or plunge.
- Align risk parameters with the calibrated $100.05 to $129.49 range rather than a point target.Price history alone exhibits zero statistically validated 30-day directional predictive skill.
Why
- DIS 30-day 80% price range spans $100.05 to $129.49, with earnings on 2026-11-17 acting as the pivotal volatility catalyst.
- Wall Street consensus holds a 12-month mean target of $126.58 (range $86.00 to $144.00), though current-quarter EPS estimates were cut by 4.2% over 90 days.[4]
- DIS shares trade above their 20-day ($109.73) and 50-day ($107.46) moving averages, gaining 2.45% over the past five sessions.
- Upcoming earnings scheduled for 2026-11-17 typically drive an average single-session move of ~7.0%.[4]
- Wall Street analysts show mild negative momentum, with 4 cutting and 2 raising current-quarter EPS estimates over the last 30 days.[4]
What could go wrong
- Earnings-day volatility is high, with a 20.8% estimated probability of a >10% move in either direction on 2026-11-17.[4]
- Corporate insiders sold 13,688 shares ($1.47M) across 4 transactions over the trailing 90 days with zero open-market purchases.[1]
- Broader market weakness poses systemic risk, as the S&P 500 index declined 1.76% over the preceding five trading sessions.
How it connects
- Brent Woodfordsold 10,092 shares across three open-market transactionsThe Walt Disney Company[1]
- Paul M. Roedersold 3,596 shares on 2026-08-19The Walt Disney Company[1]
- The Walt Disney Companyholds 37% share of joint venture resultsStar India[3]
- The Walt Disney Companymade incremental payment to acquire ownership interestHulu[3]
- NBCUniversalheld accreting interest in prior fiscal yearHulu[3]
- Financial Industry Regulatory Authorityreports Reg SHO daily short-sale volume dataThe Walt Disney Company[2]
- Securities and Exchange Commissionreceives Form 4 insider transaction and 10-K filingsThe Walt Disney Company[3],[1]
- Yahoo Financeaggregates consensus analyst ratings and price targetsThe Walt Disney Company[4]
NVILE's track record on this page
| Made | Forecast | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | $113.82 | Due Dec 3, 2026 | Pending |
| Oct 31, 2026 | $111.64 | Due Nov 30, 2026 | Pending |
| Oct 30, 2026 | $111.72 | Due Nov 29, 2026 | Pending |
Every published call is scored when it comes due. See all results →
Sources
Questions
What is the Disney forecast for the next 30 days?
NVILE's models put Disney at about $113.82 in 30 days, +0.6% from $113.11. Over the next 30 days, DIS is expected to trade within an 80% calibrated range of $100.05 to $129.49, against its latest price of $113.11. The primary catalyst is Q4 earnings on 2026-11-17, which historically triggers a typical one-day move of 7.0%, while options imply a 6.3% swing. Calibrated models indicate a 20% probability of a >10% gain, a 14% chance of a >10% decline, and a 21% risk of a single-day >10% earnings move. Price history lacks 30-day directional predictive power.
What price range does NVILE expect for Disney?
The forecast range is $100.05 to $129.49 over 30 days. Prices outside this range are possible; the range describes the model's scenarios, not a guarantee.
What could change the Disney outlook?
Earnings-day volatility is high, with a 20.8% estimated probability of a >10% move in either direction on 2026-11-17. Corporate insiders sold 13,688 shares ($1.47M) across 4 transactions over the trailing 90 days with zero open-market purchases. Broader market weakness poses systemic risk, as the S&P 500 index declined 1.76% over the preceding five trading sessions.
What should investors watch or do about Disney?
Manage unhedged directional exposure ahead of the 2026-11-17 earnings release. Align risk parameters with the calibrated $100.05 to $129.49 range rather than a point target.
How accurate are NVILE forecasts?
Every forecast NVILE publishes is scored against the real price when it comes due, and the results are listed on NVILE's public accuracy ledger.
This page is generated by NVILE's research models from public sources and market data. It is not financial advice, and forecasts can be wrong.