NVILE forecast ·
Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Forecast: Next 30 Days
Over the next 30 days, Eli Lilly is projected within an 80% calibrated range of $1,276.54 to $1,579.38 from its current price of $1,410.99. Based on the event-volatility distribution model, there is a 15% probability of a rise exceeding 10% and a 9% probability of a drop greater than 10%. The expected value of $1,419.91 serves solely as the distribution midpoint, not a directional forecast.
Price now
$1,411
Nov 2, 2026
In 30 days
$1,420
NVILE forecast
Expected move
+0.6%
Range
$1,277–$1,579
What to do
- Plan risk parameters around the $1,276.54 to $1,579.38 80% range rather than anchoring to the $1,419.91 midpoint.Historical price movements alone show no tested 30-day directional predictive skill beyond the calculated dispersion interval.
- Calibrate position sizing to accommodate a 24% combined tail probability of moves greater than 10%.Event-volatility modeling indicates an asymmetric profile with a 15% upside tail against a 9% downside tail.
Why
- Calibrated 30-day price distribution spans $1,276.54 to $1,579.38 at an 80% confidence band, with a 15% chance of a >10% gain and a 9% chance of a >10% decline.
- Consensus current-quarter EPS estimates rose 10.5% over the past 30 days, with 6 upward analyst revisions against 4 cuts and an average 12-month target of $1,426.92.[4]
- Short-sale volume dropped to 24.7% on November 2, 2026, down significantly from its 20-session average of 43.8%.[2]
- Sustained revenue expansion (+44.7% YoY to $65.18B in 2025) and diluted EPS growth (+96.0% YoY to $22.95) anchor institutional valuation support.[5]
- Healthcare sector momentum remains positive, with XLV up 2.97% over five trading sessions.
What could go wrong
- Wall Street analyst 12-month low price target of $930.00 represents a substantial downside tail risk if growth expectations reset.[4]
- Historical 20-day return volatility of 2.30% implies ongoing price swings within the projected $302.84 spread.
How it connects
- Eli Lilly and Companyin collaboration with Almirall, S.A. in EuropeAlmirall, S.A.[1]
- Securities and Exchange Commissionreceives annual 10-K and Form 4 filings fromEli Lilly and Company[1],[5],[3]
- Financial Industry Regulatory Authorityreports daily short-sale volume under Reg SHO forEli Lilly and Company[2]
- Eli Lilly and Companybenchmarks total shareholder return againstS&P 500 Stock Index[1]
- Eli Lilly and Companyoperates and reports financial statements under US GAAP inUnited States[1]
- Almirall, S.A.conducts regional collaboration activities inEurope[1]
NVILE's track record on this page
| Made | Forecast | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | $1,420 | Due Dec 3, 2026 | Pending |
| Oct 31, 2026 | $1,426 | Due Nov 30, 2026 | Pending |
| Oct 30, 2026 | $1,368 | Due Nov 29, 2026 | Pending |
Every published call is scored when it comes due. See all results →
Sources
Questions
What is the Eli Lilly forecast for the next 30 days?
NVILE's models put Eli Lilly at about $1,420 in 30 days, +0.6% from $1,411. Over the next 30 days, Eli Lilly is projected within an 80% calibrated range of $1,276.54 to $1,579.38 from its current price of $1,410.99. Based on the event-volatility distribution model, there is a 15% probability of a rise exceeding 10% and a 9% probability of a drop greater than 10%. The expected value of $1,419.91 serves solely as the distribution midpoint, not a directional forecast.
What price range does NVILE expect for Eli Lilly?
The forecast range is $1,277 to $1,579 over 30 days. Prices outside this range are possible; the range describes the model's scenarios, not a guarantee.
What could change the Eli Lilly outlook?
Wall Street analyst 12-month low price target of $930.00 represents a substantial downside tail risk if growth expectations reset. Historical 20-day return volatility of 2.30% implies ongoing price swings within the projected $302.84 spread.
What should investors watch or do about Eli Lilly?
Plan risk parameters around the $1,276.54 to $1,579.38 80% range rather than anchoring to the $1,419.91 midpoint. Calibrate position sizing to accommodate a 24% combined tail probability of moves greater than 10%.
How accurate are NVILE forecasts?
Every forecast NVILE publishes is scored against the real price when it comes due, and the results are listed on NVILE's public accuracy ledger.
This page is generated by NVILE's research models from public sources and market data. It is not financial advice, and forecasts can be wrong.