NVILE forecast ·
Home Depot (HD) Stock Forecast: Next 30 Days
Over the next 30 days, Home Depot (HD) is projected to trade within an 80% calibrated range of $304.61 to $386.91 from its current price of $341.15. Earnings scheduled for November 17, 2026, serve as the primary catalyst, with a typical single-session move of 1.25%, while options markets price an implied swing of 5.75%. The model assigns an 18% probability to a >10% gain and a 12% probability to a >10% decline, with less than 1% odds of a >10% move on results day alone.
Price now
$341.15
Nov 2, 2026
In 30 days
$343.31
NVILE forecast
Expected move
+0.6%
Range
$304.61–$386.91
What to do
- Plan position sizing around the calibrated 80% range ($304.61-$386.91).Historical distribution indicates substantial potential volatility across the 30-day window encompassing Q3 earnings.
- Hedge or limit gross exposure into the November 17 earnings announcement.[4]Options imply a 5.75% move, significantly higher than HD's typical single-day earnings reaction of 1.25%.
Why
- Calibrated 80% price bounds span $304.61 to $386.91 over 30 days, with an 18% chance of a >10% rise and a 12% chance of a >10% drop.
- HD closed at $341.15 on 2026-11-02, trading significantly above its 20-day ($309.90) and 50-day ($308.51) moving averages following a 6.82% 5-session surge.
- Options pricing implies a 5.75% earnings move for the November 17 report, exceeding the 1.25% historical typical move.[4],[5]
- Sector tailwinds are strong, with the homebuilder benchmark XHB climbing 6.77% over 5 sessions to $104.58.
- Consensus current-quarter EPS is pegged at $3.84 (+2.6% YoY), though estimates were revised down 3.0% over the last 90 days.[4]
What could go wrong
- Elevated FINRA daily short-sale volume share (46.0%) suggests active hedging or short-term speculative pressure into resistance.[1]
- Executive open-market disposals totaled $3.34M with zero purchases across the past 90 days.[2]
- Macro housing sensitivity persists, with broader equity market momentum lagging as SPY declined 1.73% over 5 sessions.[3]
How it connects
- Richard V. McPhailsold 5,989 shares at $348.40 as EVP & CFO ofThe Home Depot, Inc.[2]
- Teresa Wynn Roseboroughsold 2,455 shares at $328.77 as EVP & General Counsel ofThe Home Depot, Inc.[2]
- Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)reported 46.0% short-sale volume share on 2026-11-02 forThe Home Depot, Inc.[1]
- Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)received Form 4 insider transaction filings and Form 8-K fromThe Home Depot, Inc.[5],[2]
- Yahoo Finance Consensuscompiled consensus EPS target of $3.84 across 30 analysts forThe Home Depot, Inc.[4]
NVILE's track record on this page
| Made | Forecast | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | $343.31 | Due Dec 3, 2026 | Pending |
Every published call is scored when it comes due. See all results →
Sources
Questions
What is the Home Depot forecast for the next 30 days?
NVILE's models put Home Depot at about $343.31 in 30 days, +0.6% from $341.15. Over the next 30 days, Home Depot (HD) is projected to trade within an 80% calibrated range of $304.61 to $386.91 from its current price of $341.15. Earnings scheduled for November 17, 2026, serve as the primary catalyst, with a typical single-session move of 1.25%, while options markets price an implied swing of 5.75%. The model assigns an 18% probability to a >10% gain and a 12% probability to a >10% decline, with less than 1% odds of a >10% move on results day alone.
What price range does NVILE expect for Home Depot?
The forecast range is $304.61 to $386.91 over 30 days. Prices outside this range are possible; the range describes the model's scenarios, not a guarantee.
What could change the Home Depot outlook?
Elevated FINRA daily short-sale volume share (46.0%) suggests active hedging or short-term speculative pressure into resistance. Executive open-market disposals totaled $3.34M with zero purchases across the past 90 days. Macro housing sensitivity persists, with broader equity market momentum lagging as SPY declined 1.73% over 5 sessions.
What should investors watch or do about Home Depot?
Plan position sizing around the calibrated 80% range ($304.61-$386.91). Hedge or limit gross exposure into the November 17 earnings announcement.
How accurate are NVILE forecasts?
Every forecast NVILE publishes is scored against the real price when it comes due, and the results are listed on NVILE's public accuracy ledger.
This page is generated by NVILE's research models from public sources and market data. It is not financial advice, and forecasts can be wrong.