NVILE forecast ·

ITC Share Price Forecast: Next 30 Days

Over the next 30 days, the calibrated 80% price distribution for ITC spans ₹243.59 to ₹295.04, from the current ₹266.40. The Q2 FY27 earnings announcement scheduled for November 2, 2026, represents the primary near-term catalyst, where the typical one-session earnings reaction is 0.94%. The probability of a rally exceeding 10% is 12%, while the risk of a drop greater than 10% is 7%. Brokerage views diverge, citing cigarette tax headwinds offset by FMCG resilience.

Price now

₹266.40

Nov 2, 2026

In 30 days

₹268.08

NVILE forecast

Expected move

+0.6%

Range

₹243.59–₹295.04

₹294.39₹269.32₹244.25Jun 24, 2026Today+30d

What to do

  • Size exposure according to the ₹243.59-₹295.04 distribution rather than directional momentum ahead of post-earnings volatility.Calibrated modeling indicates elevated uncertainty with a 7% probability of a 10%+ drop and a 12% probability of a 10%+ gain.
  • Defer unhedged tactical positioning until management clarifies volume elasticity following the 32-34% cumulative cigarette price hike.[5],[7],[12]Q2 results will reveal whether FMCG and agribusiness revenue expansion adequately offsets projected 30% tobacco operating profit declines.

Why

  • ITC trades within a 30-day calibrated 80% distribution of ₹243.59 to ₹295.04, reflecting heightened near-term event volatility around earnings.
  • Analysts expect Q2 FY27 net profits to decline substantially year-on-year due to cumulative cigarette price hikes of 32% to 34% curbing volumes.[5],[7],[12]
  • Institutional rebalancing continues after GQG Partners sold equity worth approximately ₹9,395 crore, absorbed by domestic funds and Fidelity.[2]
  • A cumulative blended price hike of 32% to 34% across 75% of ITC's cigarette portfolio pressures volume demand and operating profits.[5],[12]
  • Non-cigarette segments including FMCG, agri-exports, and IT services provide diversification against tobacco sector margin contraction.[5],[10],[12]

What could go wrong

  • Further cigarette tax escalations could exacerbate consumer demand elasticity and depress core tobacco margins beyond current estimates.[5],[7],[12]
  • Protracted West Asia conflicts and supply disruptions could elevate raw input costs, squeezing FMCG division operating margins.[10]

How it connects

  • GQG Partners LLCsold shares worth approximately ₹9,395 crore inITC Limited[2]
  • Fidelitybought shares via block trade inITC Limited[2]
  • SEBIreceived disclosure under Regulation 29(2) fromGQG Partners LLC[2]
  • ITC Limitedacquired equity stake inSproutlife Foods Private Limited[10],[2]
  • Kotak Institutional Equitiesissued Q2 preview expecting profit decline forITC Limited[5],[7]
  • Nuvama Equitiesforecasts 3% revenue decline forITC Limited[12]
  • ICICI Direct Researchmaintains Buy rating with target ₹220 onITC Hotels Limited[3]
  • JM Financialraised target price to ₹235 forITC Hotels Limited[6]
  • ITC Limitedcompleted demerger ofITC Hotels Limited[8],[3]
  • Godfrey Phillips India (GPI)competes in tobacco segment againstITC Limited[5]

NVILE's track record on this page

MadeForecastActualResult
Nov 2, 2026₹268.08Due Dec 2, 2026Pending
Oct 30, 2026₹267.28Due Nov 29, 2026Pending

Every published call is scored when it comes due. See all results →

Sources

  1. 1.ITC Limited (INE154A01025) - NSE · nseindia.com
  2. 2.ITC Announcement, Latest News on ITC · economictimes.indiatimes.com
  3. 3.ITC Hotels: ICICI Direct keeps 'Buy' on valuation comfort, sees 45% upside · business-standard.com
  4. 4.ITC.NS Wall Street consensus: estimates, revisions, ratings, targets · finance.yahoo.com
  5. 5.ITC Q2 Preview: Can FMCG revenue offset 34% cigarette price hike drag? 5 factors to watch · financialexpress.com
  6. 6.ITC Hotels shares extend rally for second day, rise 6% post ... · moneycontrol.com
  7. 7.ITC Q2 Results Preview: Cigarette Tax Hikes To Hit Earnings · kotakneo.com
  8. 8.ITC Hotels Share Price Target 2027 2028 and 2030 - Univest · univest.in
  9. 9.ITC Hotels · mailcontent.icicidirect.com
  10. 10.Financial Results for the Quarter ended 30th June, 2026 · itcportal.com
  11. 11.ITC Stock Price — NSE:ITC — TradingView · tradingview.com
  12. 12.ITC Q2 Results Preview: Profit seen falling nearly 30% YoY as cigarette tax hikes bite · economictimes.indiatimes.com

Questions

What is the ITC forecast for the next 30 days?

NVILE's models put ITC at about ₹268.08 in 30 days, +0.6% from ₹266.40. Over the next 30 days, the calibrated 80% price distribution for ITC spans ₹243.59 to ₹295.04, from the current ₹266.40. The Q2 FY27 earnings announcement scheduled for November 2, 2026, represents the primary near-term catalyst, where the typical one-session earnings reaction is 0.94%. The probability of a rally exceeding 10% is 12%, while the risk of a drop greater than 10% is 7%. Brokerage views diverge, citing cigarette tax headwinds offset by FMCG resilience.

What price range does NVILE expect for ITC?

The forecast range is ₹243.59 to ₹295.04 over 30 days. Prices outside this range are possible; the range describes the model's scenarios, not a guarantee.

What could change the ITC outlook?

Further cigarette tax escalations could exacerbate consumer demand elasticity and depress core tobacco margins beyond current estimates. Protracted West Asia conflicts and supply disruptions could elevate raw input costs, squeezing FMCG division operating margins.

What should investors watch or do about ITC?

Size exposure according to the ₹243.59-₹295.04 distribution rather than directional momentum ahead of post-earnings volatility. Defer unhedged tactical positioning until management clarifies volume elasticity following the 32-34% cumulative cigarette price hike.

How accurate are NVILE forecasts?

Every forecast NVILE publishes is scored against the real price when it comes due, and the results are listed on NVILE's public accuracy ledger.

This page is generated by NVILE's research models from public sources and market data. It is not financial advice, and forecasts can be wrong.