NVILE forecast ·
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Stock Forecast: Next 30 Days
Over the next 30 days, JPM is projected to trade within an 80% calibrated range of $317.34 to $362.50, based on an event-volatility distribution model from a $337.04 baseline. The expected value of $339.17 represents the distribution midpoint, not a directional forecast. Model odds indicate a 2% chance of falling more than 10% and a 5% chance of rising over 10%. Price history alone exhibits no proven 30-day directional predictive skill.
Price now
$337.04
Oct 30, 2026
In 30 days
$339.17
NVILE forecast
Expected move
+0.6%
Range
$317.34–$362.50
What to do
- Calibrate position sizes to the $317.34 to $362.50 80% range rather than expecting a breakout.Calm volatility dynamics show low odds of moves exceeding 10%, favoring range-bound sizing.
- Monitor Treasury yield trends and wholesale funding costs as macro catalysts for boundary invalidation.[5]Sharp yield spikes directly pressure banking valuations and capital markets transaction activity.
Why
- Quantitative modeling establishes an 80% probability range of $317.34 to $362.50 over 30 days, reflecting a calm volatility regime.
- Consensus 12-month analyst targets average $373.48 with a range of $312.00 to $425.00, reflecting modest medium-term upside.[6],[7],[8]
- FINRA Reg SHO short-sale share stood at 42.8% on October 30, 2026, above its 5-day average of 37.8%.[2]
- JPMorgan management expects investment banking fees and trading revenue to rise by a mid-to-high teens percentage.[5]
- Full-year consensus EPS is estimated at $24.02 (+21.8% YoY), though current-quarter EPS estimates saw slight negative revisions.[6]
What could go wrong
How it connects
- Morgan Securities plcwholly-owned subsidiary ofJPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.[1]
- J.P. Morgan SEwholly-owned subsidiary ofJPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.[1]
- Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA)regulates via PRA Rulebook and CRRMorgan Securities plc[1]
- Barclays PLCboosted price target to $425.00 with Overweight ratingJPMorgan Chase & Co.[8]
- Morgan Stanleyboosted price target to $377.00 with Equal Weight ratingJPMorgan Chase & Co.[8]
- Robert W. Baird & Co.set 12-month price target at $312.00JPMorgan Chase & Co.[8]
- Doug Petnoserves as Co-President ofJPMorgan Chase & Co.[5]
- Brian Moynihanserves as CEO ofBank of America[5]
- Robin Leopoldsold 5,000 shares for $1.79M as Head of Human ResourcesJPMorgan Chase & Co.[3]
- Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)reports daily short-sale volume under Reg SHO forJPMorgan Chase & Co.[2]
- Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)receives quarterly Form 10-Q and Form 4 filings fromJPMorgan Chase & Co.[3],[1]
- JPMorgan Chase & Co.competes with in investment banking and consumer bankingBank of America[5]
NVILE's track record on this page
| Made | Forecast | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | $339.17 | Due Dec 2, 2026 | Pending |
| Oct 30, 2026 | $345.75 | Due Nov 29, 2026 | Pending |
Every published call is scored when it comes due. See all results →
Sources
- 1.JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 10-Q (2026-08-06) · sec.gov
- 2.JPM daily short-sale volume (FINRA) · finra.org
- 3.JPMORGAN CHASE & CO insider transactions (SEC Form 4) · sec.gov
- 4.JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) · morningstar.com
- 5.US bank investors to focus on impact of higher rates, deals outlook in Q3 earnings · reuters.com
- 6.JPM Wall Street consensus: estimates, revisions, ratings, targets · finance.yahoo.com
- 7.JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. Analyst Estimates · marketwatch.com
- 8.www.pricetargets.com · NYSE · JPMJPM Stock Price Target | JPMorgan Chase & Co. Analyst Ratings · pricetargets.com
Questions
What is the JPMorgan Chase forecast for the next 30 days?
NVILE's models put JPMorgan Chase at about $339.17 in 30 days, +0.6% from $337.04. Over the next 30 days, JPM is projected to trade within an 80% calibrated range of $317.34 to $362.50, based on an event-volatility distribution model from a $337.04 baseline. The expected value of $339.17 represents the distribution midpoint, not a directional forecast. Model odds indicate a 2% chance of falling more than 10% and a 5% chance of rising over 10%. Price history alone exhibits no proven 30-day directional predictive skill.
What price range does NVILE expect for JPMorgan Chase?
The forecast range is $317.34 to $362.50 over 30 days. Prices outside this range are possible; the range describes the model's scenarios, not a guarantee.
What could change the JPMorgan Chase outlook?
Treasury yield spikes pose industry-wide risks of curbing dealmaking and elevating wholesale bank funding costs. Insider selling occurred in August and September 2026, totaling $1.79M across two open-market transactions with zero open-market insider purchases.
What should investors watch or do about JPMorgan Chase?
Calibrate position sizes to the $317.34 to $362.50 80% range rather than expecting a breakout. Monitor Treasury yield trends and wholesale funding costs as macro catalysts for boundary invalidation.
How accurate are NVILE forecasts?
Every forecast NVILE publishes is scored against the real price when it comes due, and the results are listed on NVILE's public accuracy ledger.
This page is generated by NVILE's research models from public sources and market data. It is not financial advice, and forecasts can be wrong.