NVILE forecast ·
Nike (NKE) Stock Forecast: Next 30 Days
Over the next 30 days, NKE is modeled within a calibrated 80% range of $35.74 to $43.92, starting from $39.37. Calibrated distribution odds indicate a 14% probability of rising over 10% and a 9% probability of falling over 10%. Price history provides no tested directional edge; fundamental Wall Street sentiment remains heavily tilted negative following severe EPS downgrades and ongoing structural weakness in China.
Price now
$39.37
Nov 2, 2026
In 30 days
$39.62
NVILE forecast
Expected move
+0.6%
Range
$35.74–$43.92
What to do
- Maintain tight risk boundaries calibrated to the $35.74 to $43.92 range.Statistical boundaries provide objective stop/target framing where trend direction holds no historical predictive skill.
- Avoid aggressive directional long exposure prior to fundamental stabilization in China.[5],[6]Severe consensus revisions (-27% in 30 days) and 22% regional contraction create continuing fundamental headwinds.
Why
- The calibrated 80% price range spans $35.74 to $43.92 over 30 days, with modest 14% odds of a >10% gain and 9% odds of a >10% drop.
- Consensus current-quarter EPS has been slashed 27.0% in the last 30 days, with 17 analysts cutting and zero raising estimates.[5]
- Short-sale volume accounted for 50.0% of FINRA Reg SHO reported volume over the trailing 5 sessions, up from a 45.7% 20-day baseline.[1]
- Revenue in Greater China dropped 22%, with management signaling persistent headwinds extending into fiscal 2027.[6]
- CEO Elliott Hill is shifting strategy toward core premium sports categories and rebuilding wholesale relationships, though turnaround benefits are delayed.[4]
What could go wrong
How it connects
- Elliott Hillserves as CEO ofNIKE, Inc.[4]
- Swoosh, LLCbeneficially owned approximately 79% of Class A Common Stock ofNIKE, Inc.[3]
- Anta Sportstook market share fromNIKE, Inc.[4]
- Li Ningtook market share fromNIKE, Inc.[4]
- Hokatook market share fromNIKE, Inc.[4]
- Alagirisamy Venkateshsold 3,671 shares as EVP COO ofNIKE, Inc.[2]
- Robert Leinwandsold 3,646 shares as EVP Chief Legal Officer ofNIKE, Inc.[2]
- Philip McCartneysold 2,559 shares as EVP Chief Innovation Officer ofNIKE, Inc.[2]
- Piper Sandlerissued $75 price target forNIKE, Inc.[6]
- Telsey Advisory Groupanalyzed turnaround timeline ofNIKE, Inc.[4]
- Securities and Exchange Commissionreceives regulatory filings fromNIKE, Inc.[3],[2]
- FINRAmonitors short volume reporting forNIKE, Inc.[1]
- U.S. Supreme Courtruled unauthorized IEEPA tariffs affecting import costs ofNIKE, Inc.[3]
NVILE's track record on this page
| Made | Forecast | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | $39.62 | Due Dec 2, 2026 | Pending |
| Oct 30, 2026 | $39.18 | Due Nov 29, 2026 | Pending |
Every published call is scored when it comes due. See all results →
Sources
- 1.NKE daily short-sale volume (FINRA) · finra.org
- 2.NIKE, Inc. insider transactions (SEC Form 4) · sec.gov
- 3.NIKE, Inc. 10-K (2026-07-15) · sec.gov
- 4.Nike gains despite China slump as investors eye turnaround progress · reuters.com
- 5.NKE Wall Street consensus: estimates, revisions, ratings, targets · finance.yahoo.com
- 6.Will Nike Ever Stop Falling? One Analyst is Sure That ... · finance.yahoo.com
Questions
What is the Nike forecast for the next 30 days?
NVILE's models put Nike at about $39.62 in 30 days, +0.6% from $39.37. Over the next 30 days, NKE is modeled within a calibrated 80% range of $35.74 to $43.92, starting from $39.37. Calibrated distribution odds indicate a 14% probability of rising over 10% and a 9% probability of falling over 10%. Price history provides no tested directional edge; fundamental Wall Street sentiment remains heavily tilted negative following severe EPS downgrades and ongoing structural weakness in China.
What price range does NVILE expect for Nike?
The forecast range is $35.74 to $43.92 over 30 days. Prices outside this range are possible; the range describes the model's scenarios, not a guarantee.
What could change the Nike outlook?
Market share erosion to competitors Anta, Li Ning, and Hoka poses ongoing margin risk in international markets. Potential Class B share supply overhang exists if Swoosh LLC converts any of its 79% Class A voting control.
What should investors watch or do about Nike?
Maintain tight risk boundaries calibrated to the $35.74 to $43.92 range. Avoid aggressive directional long exposure prior to fundamental stabilization in China.
How accurate are NVILE forecasts?
Every forecast NVILE publishes is scored against the real price when it comes due, and the results are listed on NVILE's public accuracy ledger.
This page is generated by NVILE's research models from public sources and market data. It is not financial advice, and forecasts can be wrong.