NVILE forecast ·

TSMC (TSM) Stock Forecast: Next 30 Days

Over the next 30 days, TSMC (TSM) is projected within an 80% calibrated range of $355.76 to $469.03, relative to its latest price of $405.92. Quantitative distribution modeling indicates a 20% probability of gaining more than 10% and a 15% probability of dropping more than 10%. Historical price patterns offer no directional certainty, leaving the stock subject to broader market volatility and fundamental semiconductor demand momentum.

Price now

$405.92

Nov 2, 2026

In 30 days

$408.49

NVILE forecast

Expected move

+0.6%

Range

$355.76–$469.03

$484.14$420.78$357.42Jun 26, 2026Today+30d

What to do

  • Frame tactical trading strategies around the $355.76 to $469.03 range rather than a single directional target.Statistical distribution indicates symmetric tail risks with no tested directional skill over 30 days.
  • Monitor semiconductor sector beta against broader benchmark pullbacks like SOXX.SOXX five-day declines (-5.3%) reflect broader sector headwinds that can suppress individual equity rallies.

Why

  • Quantitative modeling defines an 80% distribution band between $355.76 and $469.03 over a 30-day horizon.
  • Wall Street consensus maintains an average 12-month target of $584.39, with current-quarter EPS revised upwards by 4.0% over 30 days.[3]
  • TSMC posted record Q3 net profit of NT$763.1 billion and raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 44% year-over-year.[4],[6],[9]
  • Robust AI infrastructure demand outpaces advanced packaging and wafer capacity, prompting elevated capex plans through 2028.[4],[6]
  • Executive leadership executed open-market purchases in October 2026, signaling internal confidence amid market consolidation.[1]

What could go wrong

  • Rising component costs and broader macroeconomic uncertainty continue to challenge consumer-oriented end markets.[7]
  • Advanced packaging capacity constraints (CoWoS) and competition from Intel EMIB could pressure near-term margins.[6]

How it connects

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltdsupplies advanced chips toNvidia Corporation[7]
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltdsupplies advanced processors toApple Inc.[7]
  • Wei Che-Chialeads as Director, Chairman and CEO ofTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd[1]
  • Mii Yuh-Jierserves as EVP and Co-COO ofTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd[1]
  • Intel Corporationcompetes with in advanced packaging via EMIBTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd[6]
  • S&P Global Ratingsrevised outlook to positive with AA- rating affirmed forTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd[5]
  • Aletheiaprojects advanced packaging revenue quadrupling by 2028 forTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd[6]
  • SemiAnalysistracks packaging capacity constraints forTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd[4]

NVILE's track record on this page

MadeForecastActualResult
Nov 2, 2026$408.49Due Dec 2, 2026Pending
Oct 30, 2026$406.51Due Nov 29, 2026Pending

Every published call is scored when it comes due. See all results →

Sources

  1. 1.TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD insider transactions (SEC Form 4) · sec.gov
  2. 2.TSM daily short-sale volume (FINRA) · finra.org
  3. 3.TSM Wall Street consensus: estimates, revisions, ratings, targets · finance.yahoo.com
  4. 4.TSMC posts record profit for a sixth straight quarter ... - CNBC · cnbc.com
  5. 5.Research Update: TSMC Outlook Revised To Positive · spglobal.com
  6. 6.[News] After TSMC’s 3Q26 Earnings: Key Brokerage Takeaways as ... · trendforce.com
  7. 7.TSMC 'prudent' going into 2027 after posting sixth straight quarter of record profit · rmb.reuters.com
  8. 8.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) · finviz.com
  9. 9.[PDF] 3Q26 Presentation (E).pdf - TSMC Investor Relations · investor.tsmc.com

Questions

What is the TSMC forecast for the next 30 days?

NVILE's models put TSMC at about $408.49 in 30 days, +0.6% from $405.92. Over the next 30 days, TSMC (TSM) is projected within an 80% calibrated range of $355.76 to $469.03, relative to its latest price of $405.92. Quantitative distribution modeling indicates a 20% probability of gaining more than 10% and a 15% probability of dropping more than 10%. Historical price patterns offer no directional certainty, leaving the stock subject to broader market volatility and fundamental semiconductor demand momentum.

What price range does NVILE expect for TSMC?

The forecast range is $355.76 to $469.03 over 30 days. Prices outside this range are possible; the range describes the model's scenarios, not a guarantee.

What could change the TSMC outlook?

Rising component costs and broader macroeconomic uncertainty continue to challenge consumer-oriented end markets. Advanced packaging capacity constraints (CoWoS) and competition from Intel EMIB could pressure near-term margins.

What should investors watch or do about TSMC?

Frame tactical trading strategies around the $355.76 to $469.03 range rather than a single directional target. Monitor semiconductor sector beta against broader benchmark pullbacks like SOXX.

How accurate are NVILE forecasts?

Every forecast NVILE publishes is scored against the real price when it comes due, and the results are listed on NVILE's public accuracy ledger.

This page is generated by NVILE's research models from public sources and market data. It is not financial advice, and forecasts can be wrong.